Friday, January 19, 2007

US Presidential race - all the cards up in the air

The US political scene has a seductive pull.

It is always a pleasure to receive an update from Taegan Goodard's Political Wire.

A scan of some of his (it took me a while to establish his gender!) recent headlines shows quite a lot of changes in the line-up for the 2008 Presidential campaign:

Clinton, Giuliani are the Front Runners
Obama, McCain Lead in New Hampshire
Public Firmly Opposed to Bush Plan
McCain's Support is Crumbling
Edwards, Giuliani Lead in Iowa

It is quite extraordinary that "McCain's Support is crumbling". The man virtually had it in the bag! His vote in New Hampshire has "collapsed" apparently. Silly sausage. What a 42 carat plonker for supporting Bush's "surge"!

My own view is that Joe Biden is the best person for the job. He has the foreign relations experience and, more importantly, sound judgement, required. But, or course, that doesn't mean he will win. In fact, in the funny old world of US politics, it could well be a guarantee that he doesn't win!

Looking at the rest of the field, I think Guiliani is too much of a maverick to make a good fist of the campaign. He does not have a profile which is broad and serious enough for President. I think Obama is too inexperienced and Hillary Clinton has been shown to have somewhat defective judgement, especially on the Iraq war. But, somehow, if I was asked to bet on it now (and bear in mind that I actually did bet a year ago on Mark Warner (now out of the race) and Mike Huckabee (still possibly in it) so I am not one to watch in this area!) I would put money on Hillary Clinton. She has the dosh, the smattering of glamour and the family nous to do it. And with Bush imploding, I wouldn't bet on a Republican winning.

But who knows? Taegan Goddard warns:

As a point of reference, Bill Clinton was in eleventh place among Democratic candidates in a February 1991 (the same time then as now in relation to the forthcoming election) poll of Democrats; a little more than a year later he had zoomed to the top of the list.

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