Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Populus poll "kills off" October election speculation

Call me old-fashioned, but I have never thought an election this year was going to happen. That was mainly because I couldn't see where Gordon Brown would find £10-20 million, to fund Labour's election campaign, at the drop of a hat.

But after all the prevailing wisdom in the press saying an autumn election was imminent, we now have the Times saying that it's off. The Tories and Labour are 36% to 37% respectively in a Populus poll. The Tories are ahead in key marginals.

Oh well, that's it then!

Except that surely Brown is not calculating that his poll position will improve next year, so that it will be any better than it is now, is he? So, I don't see how this poll makes a 2007 election any less or more likely. In fact, it may make it more likely. Brown may calculate that he needs to go now before things get even worse for him.

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