Lay off Ming!

Well done to Richard Huzzey for an excellent piece on the aftermath of the May 3rd elections.

I particularly agreed with this point:

Locally, we need to strengthen and expand the party’s excellent training and mentoring programmes so best practice is spread more widely.

It is amazing how, with years of incumbency, the campaigning instincts and skills of members get dulled.

We got a pounding here in West Berkshire (although we actually won back two seats, got David Rendel elected to the council and held control of the two town councils), so you would expect people like me to be at the forefront of blaming the leadership.

Not a bit of it. If we can win councils like Hull and Eastbourne, is it Ming's fault if we lose elsewhere? Incumbency, the Cameron effect, forgetting some of our campaigning methods and the Tories getting smart in theirs...these all have their impact.

Hywel Morgan put it brilliantly in a comment on LibDem voice:

If people point to the impact that Nick and Chris have made in their spokesperson roles then (a) it seems fairly minimal and (b) nowhere near that established by Ming in Foreign Affairs before he became leader.

The failings of the party since Ming became leader are firstly not that massive (the issue is learning the lessons from them for the future) but secondly would have arisen even if Charles had remained leader so to lay them at Mings door is missing the point.

I have been greatly amused by Iain Dale sniffing around trying to either find unrealistic LibDem commenters to laugh at (I usually fall into that category) or finding people who, in his eyes, have "smelt the coffee" and are getting mutinous.

I am not in the Liberal Democrats solely to win. That will no doubt get quoted and laughed at, but it is not the primary point. Having just recovered from the bruises on my feet due to recent pavement pounding, I have slogged away since 1987 as a member, and since 1970 as a supporter, because I believe in Liberalism and in advocating and spreading it. Of course, winning is an objective but if it was the sole objective, then I would have drifted around from party to party dependent on the political tide at the time, in order to experience winning.

If anyone thinks I am going to be shifted off course by the arrival of that idiot David Cameron, they have another think coming.

Impact on elections of rubbish collection changes?

On a recent 'Have I got news for you?', Jeremy Clarkson joked to Krishnan Guru-Murthy that he had an easy job on Channel Four news: "Just turn up, read out the Guardian, and go home".

I feel a little like this blog should be retitled: "Wot I liked in the Guardian today"....but as my father-in-law would say "Doesn't matter".

The said organ today has a fascinating little piece on the impact of rubbish collection changes on the May 3rd results:

Local concerns, especially over rubbish collection, were thought to have made the difference in several council elections in England yesterday. Complaints about the move to fortnightly bin collections changed the political map in around 10 councils. In Bournemouth, Torbay, and Waverley, this played a part in the Tories' triumphs at the expense of the Lib Dems.

The Conservatives suffered in areas where they have tried out the system, notably North Lincolnshire, Hinckley, Bosworth, Salisbury, and West Somerset. The issue played some part in Labour losing Blackburn with Darwen, after 24 years, and damaged the party in both Telford and Charnwood.

Election bright spot: BNP fail to make inroads

One of the bright spots of the Thursday results is that the BNP failed to make any real progress. They made a net gain of two councillors which was far short of their goal to leap from 49 to 100 councillors. This was despite them fielding a record number of councillors.

West Berkshire and Newbury Town Council election results

Quite a few people are googling for local election results in these parts. The Newbury Town Council results are here (albeit without figures). The West Berkshire Council results are here.

Post election thoughts

I am in election detox mode (EDM) - i.e long walk in the country this morning, three pints of Marston's Pedigree, Bangers and Mash at a canalside pub with the missus and a nice sleep this afternoon. Perfeck!

However, I think I can safely suspend EDM to say well done to all the candidates in the West Berkshire and Newbury Town Council election. I am sorry to the ones who were not elected.

Well done to the LibDem team. Despite a result that will take some absorbing, there were some little nuggets of gold in the results. Getting David Rendel back on the council is fantastic. Retaining largest party status ("control") on Newbury Town Council against the district council pattern was a real shaft of sunlight.

Prediction published

I have now published my predictions for West Berkshire and Newbury Town Council elections, made on 27th April. They appear to have been a little too pessimistic. I still have the sealed envelope intact, in which I sent the predictions to myself for postmarking through the Royal Mail on 27th April, if anyone wants to check that my published post is the same as my prediction.

Well done Portsmouth LibDems!

It is marvellous to see that Portsmouth LibDems have held their own in the election and remain the largest party on the council, despite a ferocious Tory campaign onslaught.

It is particularly cheering to see Gerald Vernon-Jackson being returned as councillor for Milton ward. The Tories put up their golden girl, Sarah Dineage, against him, complete with heavy campaign artillery. Gerald is a fantastically hard worker for his local community and an electoral genius to boot.

Sky seem to have given different change figures here to the ones shown half an hour ago on BBC1.

The BBC web site is showing:

Party Seats/change

LibDem 19 0
Con 17 +1
Lab 5 0
Others 1 -1

Sky (if you don't die of boredom scrolling down) is showing:

LibDem 19 -2
Con 17 +1
Lab 5 0
Others 1 1

Portsmouth City Council site, who I presume know what they are talking about (joke!) confirm the BBC result. Well done BBC.

Sky's confusion seems to be based on them thinking that there were no others/independents on the council before May 3rd. But the Portsmouth CC site confirms that there were two independents on the council before yesterday.

It's over (which incidentally is an excellent record by Roy Orbison)

It is over. It is difficult to believe, but it is. I need a reassuring quotation from Shakespeare:

"What 's done is done". Macbeth ( Quote Act III, Scene II).

Thank you Will, I needed that sort of reassurance to move to closure.

My daughter has coincidentally just sent me a chain email with a poem from a teenager dying of cancer. I don't want to risk abusing copyright by quoting it. But let's just say it helps me move on from elections.

My predictions come back to me

A hard copy of my predictions blog posting for the election results for West Berkshire Council and Newbury Town Council has now come back to me in a sealed envelope via Royal Mail, postmarked for 27th April. I will be publishing that posting after the election results have been announced. I will leave the envelope sealed, so that anyone can check the fact that I did indeed make the prediction blog posting on 27th April.

Pictured: the sealed envelope.

"How's it going?"

This evening, I had a chat with a local Tory candidate and council colleague who I am quite friendly with. He was putting up the usual stakeboards in his garden. "How's it going?" he asked. "Very well", I said,"Lovely weather for it."

I do wonder whether he was hoping I would divulge our detailed canvass statistics. Some hope.

Postal votes cast - predictions sealed

I have just cast my postal vote and made a blog posting which I will publish after the announcement of the election results on May 4th, with my election predictions for West Berkshire and Newbury. I will print off that posting later today and post it to myself, in an envelope sealed with sellotape, which I will sign across, so that I can prove through the postmark that I made the prediction today.

Election predictions for West Berkshire and Newbury

I am typing this post at 6am on 27th April. I will press "publish" on this posting after the actual results are announced on 4th May. Today I will print off this posting and post it back to myself in the Royal Mail, sealed in an envelope with sellotape which I will sign across, to prove through the postmark when I typed this.

For West Berkshire Council I predict this result:

Conservatives 41 seats
Liberal Democrats 11 seats

And for Newbury Town Council I predict this result:

Conservatives 16 seats
Liberal Democrats 7 seats

The Liberal Democrats locally and nationally fought a fantastically good campaign. It was first class. However, there is a tide at work at the moment. National trends, Tory phone banks, repeated letters - that sort of thing. West Berkshire is a marginal enough area as it is.

As I learnt as a kid living on the coast, you can't fight the tide. It comes and it goes.

Us Liberal Democrats in West Berkshire and nationally have all slogged ourselves out through hard work. But then again, we fought just as hard a campaign in the mid-1990s when we won all but seven seats on Newbury District Council. But at that time the tide was with us and against the Conservatives.

We should remember the old Rudyard Kipling lines:

If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;

At the end of the day, we should be able to say that we did our very best and that we know what we believe in. In West Berkshire and nationally, us LibDems did our very best in this campaign, we clearly know what we believe in and we are our true to our beliefs. That is all that matters. The rest is tide.

Two of my friends are currently facing cancer and have days or weeks left in this world. It puts things into perspective.

It is sometimes worth asking oneself: "When I am on my deathbed (if I am lucky enough to have one!), what sort of things will I regret not doing?"

The answer for me is: I would regret it if I didn't spend enough time enjoying my family, being with friends and enjoying God's world - sun, dawn, sea, rivers, exercise, fresh air, real ale etc.

What I definitely won't say to myself on my deathbed is this:

If only we had won that election....and if only I had spent more time in council meetings.

Newsnight predict Labour meltdown

A fascinating Newsnight last night. Michael Crick is starting to make his mark as their political editor.

According to the University of Plymouth's study of 50 recent by-elections, they predict these May 3rd results:

Conservatives on 38% and +330 seats
Liberal Democrats on 29% and +110 seats
Labour on 24% and -500 seats

This would put Labour lower than Michael Foot's 1982 29% level and lower even than the Tories' 25% in 1995 under Major.

They also reported that John McDonnell and Michael Meacher have made an agreement to meet when Blair resigns and compare MP signature lists. The one with the least signatures of support at that time will drop out.

West Berkshire LibDem candidates break the mould

We are used to seeing a good number of Conservative candidates described as a "local businessman". Addresses such as Newbury's exclusive Garden Close Lane, usually adorn the names of Tory candidates.

Well, this time, the list of West Berkshire Liberal Democrat candidates boosts a good number of "business people" and two people whose address is "Garden Close Lane". Goodness me, there is even a double-barrelled name in the LibDem ranks. Whatever next?

West Berkshire Tories rattled

It seems that West Berkshire Conservatives are somewhat rattled and not confident of how they will fare on May 3rd. This is from the Newbury Weekly News this week:

Laszlo Zverko (Westwood), the Tory who now controls the council’s finances, thinks that the make-up of the council could be sealed by a single family in next month’s vote. “The Lib Dems are giving an awful lot of attention to this ward,” he said. “Because of the tiny majority, one husband and wife voting one way or the other could shift the whole balance of power in the ward and potentially the whole council.” It’s squeaky bum time, clearly. (Herodatus – NWN – 19th April 2007).

The ultimate political skills - saying Mss and avoiding masticators

It's not easy. Even with years of experience you can't pull it off every time. But I occasionally manage to do it - to say "Mss" so it sounds like Mrs, Ms or Miss so I don't offend anyone. The trick is to emphasise the surname and make the title really quick so it collides with the surname.

The sport has been reduced a bit this time, because our EARS seems to print a few Ms,Miss or Mrs titles.

Dear old Alex Foster on Niles Blogs presents many doorstep dilemmas, several of which can be avoided in extremis by not saying the person's name and saying at the end: "...and you are...?.(helping them out with a suggestion from the list if needed!)".

Other rules I follow but which are probably wrong, and will probably result in me being ritually disembowelled by the ALDC executive committee, are:

-I certainly never get into first names unless there are clearly several competing people with the same surname and sex in the household.

-I always press the bell and knock, at the same time to avoid annoyance.

-I always find it reassuring to be armed with this response ready to give anyone who says "NO I WILL BE VOTING CONSERVATIVE" or similar:

"Thank you for that very valuable information for our records. Goodbye". (Bliss!)

-Another tip: If you see people masticating inside the house, avoid them - they are bound to be Conservatives, because they are habitual masticators.

-ALWAYS assume that a youngster can vote unless they look ridiculously young (e.g have a dummy in their mouth)- if you make a mistake and assume they can vote when they can't, they will be very flattered and correct you anyway. Better to do that than the other way round and get it wrong and offend them if they can vote.

-And relax, it's only a blinking election!