A fascinating Newsnight last night. Michael Crick is starting to make his mark as their political editor.
According to the University of Plymouth's study of 50 recent by-elections, they predict these May 3rd results:
Conservatives on 38% and +330 seats
Liberal Democrats on 29% and +110 seats
Labour on 24% and -500 seats
This would put Labour lower than Michael Foot's 1982 29% level and lower even than the Tories' 25% in 1995 under Major.
They also reported that John McDonnell and Michael Meacher have made an agreement to meet when Blair resigns and compare MP signature lists. The one with the least signatures of support at that time will drop out.
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I'm sorry but that data looks way over-optimistic for us and pessimistic from the Tories' perspective.
ReplyDeleteTake with a big lump of salt
Fair enough
ReplyDeleteI think they were way out last year.
ReplyDeleteThis was their prediction last year:
ReplyDelete(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2006)
"On April 7, a report produced by the University of Plymouth for Newsnight, based on results of council by-elections in the past three months, suggested that, compared to the 2002 local elections:
* Labour would increase their national vote share by 2% to 28% but that they would lose around 130 seats.
* The Conservatives would suffer a decrease in the national vote share of 4% leaving them with 33% and a loss of around 95 seats.
* The Liberal Democrats would increase their vote share by 2% to 29% and would gain around 190 seats.
This prediction may be seen to be almost entirely inaccurate."
Thank you Peter, and thank you, Stephen, for that impressive research!
ReplyDeleteIn fairness to the Plymouth people, last year's prediction was from a month out rather than a week, and in that month, Labour did rather choose to implode - not just John Prescott, but also the Home Office providing rather spectacular negative coverage and somewhat saving Mr Balloon's bacon from a lacklustre campaign.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, calling them "the UK's leading election study centre" is just asking for trouble. ;)
And where's Mr Frank Luntz when Newsnight need him?!
Thank you Fluf...er...Richard
ReplyDelete