The US Democrats are seeing some phenomenally good polling results in the run-up to the November Congress elections.
Nationwide, CNN puts them a stonking 21 points ahead of the Republicans. That's up from 11 points 9 days ago. USA Today/Gallup puts them 23 points ahead - up from even stevens last month.
In the micro polls at district level, Chris Bowers of MyDD puts the Democrats on course for the requisite 15 seat gain in the House of Representatives, taking control. The chances of that happening appear better than 50-50.
In the Senate, previously thought unlikely for the Democrats to win control, there is slightly less than a 50-50 chance of the Democrats taking control.
Ruy Teixeira, my US psephological hero, provides an excellent analysis of the whole picture on the Donkey Rising.
The Republicans' trouble boils down to one thing: Iraq. The MSN antics of Maf54 (disgraced former Republican congressman Mark Foley) have added a bit of a filip to the wave in the Democrats' favour.
As the old cliche goes, this is election is the Democrats' to lose.
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The problem is that the Democrats are past masters at losing elections they were supposed to win!
ReplyDeleteIndeed!
ReplyDeletewww.electoral-vote.com is a good site for up-to-date predictions on the elections...
ReplyDeleteAh yes, I remember that one from the presidential elections. Thanks Chris
ReplyDelete